'The Mandalorian And Grogu Movie': Box Office Predictions And What To Expect
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On April 7, 2023, the first day of Star Wars Celebration in London, Lucasfilm announced three upcoming Star Wars Films: the first, to be directed by Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy and set 15 years after the events of The Rise of Skywalker, with Rey rebuilding a new Jedi Order, the second dealing with the foundation of the Jedi Order with James Mangold as director and the third described as the culmination of the so-called Mandoverse, to be directed by Dave Filoni.
In her final interview before retiring as the CEO of Lucasfilm, Kathleen Kennedy mentioned that Mangold andBeau Willimon have delivered a script she described as “breaking the mold” and that the film is currently on hold. With Filoni now the co-CEO of Lucasfilm, the fate of his movie is in limbo as well, and Kennedy didn’t even mention the Rey film, so it’s unlikely that any of these projects will see the light of day in this decade, if ever.
Then on January 9, 2024, Lucasfilm announced The Mandalorian and Grogu, a film to be directed by Jon Favreau, as the next theatrical Star Wars movie and the first after 2019’s The Rise of Skywalker, which would take the release spot previously occupied by Obaid-Chinoy’s film. This announcement came a little out of left field, as there was no previous indication that Din Djarin and his little sidekick character would make the jump from the very successful Disney+ show to the big screen. On the other hand, Bob Iger wanted another Star Wars movie in cinemas as soon as possible, all other projects weren’t really moving forward, Favreau was known to deliver what he promised, and a film about “Baby Yoda” simply had to be the huge hit that the franchise so desperately needed after Episode IX, right?
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Image Source: Empire
After more than six years and some less-than-perfect Disney+ projects like The Acolyte, there is indeed a lot of pressure on The Mandalorian and Grogu to be successful, not only from the perspective of the fans, who have been (overly) critical of many of Lucasfilm’s projects in recent years, but also from a financial standpoint. A big success of The Mandalorian and Grogu at the box office could not only push Dave Filoni’s “Avengers-style” Mandaloverse movie, but there are also rumors about a possible Mandalorian trilogy should the movie really deliver financially.
There are reasons why the next Star Wars film could be a huge hit, but there are also some reasons why it won’t be, and we will go through both of them in the following:
'The Mandalorian And Grogu' Will Be A Smash Hit Because...
The bar isn’t too high.
The production cost of The Mandalorian and Grogu was reportedly around $165 million, which makes it one of the “cheapest” Star Wars movies of the Disney era. Adding around the same amount for marketing, the film will have to make around $330 million globally to break even.
For the sake of comparison, Solo: A Star Wars Story, which is widely regarded as the only Star Wars movie to lose money (although not because of the money it med, but because of the money it cost), ended up earning $392 million globally, and Project Hail Mary (to which we will get back later on) made nearly $340 million in its first 14 days. So, it is highly unlikely that the next Star Wars film will not be a financial success (and again, we will come back to this point).
Image Source: Variety
It’s Still Star Wars
Star Wars films have always been big-office juggernauts, and although the franchise has lost its nimbus of being financially “untouchable”, it is still one of the biggest brand names in Hollywood, and this alone should guarantee that people show up in front of the cinemas.
With the big screen always being the “home” of Star Wars, and the fact that it has been more than six years since the last (new) film, there surely is a sense of expectation to see the franchise back where it all started nearly 50 years ago. Although Dave Filoni has already cautiously warned that 2026 is neither 1999 before The Phantom Menace, nor 2015 before the advent of The Force Awakens.
It features Baby Yoda.
It is still hard to believe that Lucasfilm didn’t know beforehand what a gem they held in their hands when the final scene of the first episode of The Mandalorian aired and “Baby Yoda” was revealed. Yes, the Ewoks might have been cute, as were the Porgs, but there are few characters in the history of film or television who were so unamoniouly loved as the little green guy in his floating cradle. Even people who have never seen a single Star Wars film knew who “Baby Yoda” was (although probably not his real name).
Image Source: HubPages
So it’s no wonder that the marketing for the film relied heavily on Grogu. Clips from the three seasons of the TV show emphasised his cuteness, as did the teaser and the trailer. A live-action puppet of Grogu was sitting next to Kate Hudson at the Oscar ceremony, and the cast and crew never fail to mention that working with Grogu on set was like working with a real actor.
It has mass appeal.
Although the story of the movie is still very much under wraps, it’s safe to say that The Mandalorian and Grogu most likely won’t include any galaxy-changing events. Nor will it be bogged down with previous lore, or forcing the audience to do a lot of homework before going to the cinema. Jon Fareau has said that he wanted to recapture the feeling he had when seeing Star Wars for the first time, and A New Hope obviously didn’t need any previous knowledge.
Image Source: ComicBookNews
There surely will be a ton of easter eggs for hardcore Star Wars fans, but another reason Lucasfilm and Disney chose this film for the theatrical return of the franchise is that they hope that it will appeal to all ages, from fans who have been there in 1977 to young kids, who know nothing about Andor, Darth Revan, or the Drengir.
'The Mandalorian And Grogu' Won’t Be A Hit Because...
Good is not good enough.
Let’s assume the movie ends with a global box office of around $400 million. Technically, this would mean it has made a profit of around $70 million. Not too bad for a movie in the post-COVID era. But will such a profit be enough to satisfy Lucasfilm and Disney? Will it be enough to not be regarded as another flop of the Disney era in the eyes of many “fans”? Hardly!
Image Source: MurphysMultiverse
Expecting the movie to financially end up in the ballpark of The Force Awakens is wishful thinking, of course, but even a result around $1 billion globally is, honestly, not very likely. After all, only 12 films that have come out since 2020 have managed to do that. To be seen as a financial success, The Mandalorian and Grogu will likely have to make at least $600 million by the end of its theatrical run. Is this possible? Surely it is. Is it likely? I personally doubt it...
There is big trouble in (little) China.
China’s influence on the global box office has significantly grown in recent years. The most successful movie of 2025 was Ne Zha 2, with more than $ 2.2 billion, 99% of which was earned in its homeland, China. Zootopia 2 made $651 million in China, compared to “just” $428 million in the US. As of the time of writing this article, the most successful film of 2026 is a movie called Pegasus 3, with a gross of $609 million, $606 of which were earned in China.
This doesn’t bode well for a franchise like Star Wars, which traditionally never managed to make a big impact in China. Even The Force Awakens made just $124 million there, and The Rise of Skywalker left cinemas after a very short run with only slightly above $20.5 million.
Image Source: Nick Stember
Still, Zootopia 2, with its bunch of cute characters, made a ton of money there, and there surely isn’t a lack of cute characters in The Mandalorian and Grogu. Nonetheless, conquering the Chinese market could be a tough task.
Lucasfilm makes the same mistakes as with Dial of Destiny.
When Lucasfilm announced the fifth Indiana Jones movie, they relied on two things that should guarantee the film’s success: the brand name and the return of Harrison Ford.
As it turned out, neither thing was enough to make Dial of Destiny a blockbuster, costing Disney around $130 million. While Indiana Jones was one of the most beloved franchises in the 80s, this was 40 years ago, and the fourth Indiana Jones film, Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, didn’t necessarily do much to have fans longing for another installment. And while Harrison Ford’s performance in Dial of Destiny was great, mainly relying on the star power of an 80-year-old was obviously not enough.
Image Source: Den of Geek
Looking at The Mandalorian, it’s hard to argue that the first two seasons were massive hits, both with the critics and the fans. But the third season? Not so much. Lucasfilm relies on the staying power of a series, which last season aired three years ago and was not that well-regarded. This could lead to a lack of urgency to see this movie in cinemas, especially when it will arrive on Disney+ by the end of summer.
It is dead on arrival, and Lucasfilm doesn’t even seem to care.
There is another parallel to Dial of Destiny: Months before the film’s release, there were reports about test screenings that didn’t end up as Lucasfilm had hoped. When the movie was shown at the Cannes Film Festival, Harrison Ford got standing ovations, while the critics were far less impressed by the film itself. The echo chamber of the internet quickly morphed this into “Dial of Destiny is a complete failure and not worth going to the cinemas”. And as Lucasfilm mainly relied on the appeal of the names “Indiana Jones” and Harrison Ford, it didn’t do much to counter this opinion.
Image Source: MyLifeFM
The first teaser for The Mandalorian and Grogu was met with mixed responses, to put it kindly. The internet was quick to call the film just a slightly bigger version of the TV show. When Lucasfilm released its Super Bowl ad, with the Tauntauns and the sleigh, this didn’t do much to sway opinions, and although the trailer that was released shortly after was received much better, there is a danger that many have already given up on the movie before it hits cinemas.
Making it even worse is the rumor that Lucasfilm seems to have more hope for next year’s Starfighter than for The Mandalorian and Grogu to be a success. This seems like the famous meme, where a guy turns his head for a girl passing by, while his girlfriend is standing next to him.
Image Source: CultureSlate
On the other end of the spectrum is Project Hail Mary, which everyone seemed to like right from the get-go. Those who read the book mostly liked it, all of the trailers had a good reception, and before the film was even released, word of mouth already called it one of the best movies of the year. Add to this the marketing power of Ryan Gosling, and you have every ingredient for a highly successful movie.
So, to sum up, here are your author’s predictions for the box office results for The Mandalorian and Grogu:
Opening weekend domestically: $75 mio.
Domestically overall: $210 mio.
Overall globally: $390 mio.
Written by Gerald Petschk
CultureSlate: Made by humans, for humans.
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Source: Box Office Mojo
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